SHFE Tin Declined Under Pressure in Afternoon Session, Awaiting Guidance From Non-Farm Payrolls Data [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of September 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract remained under pressure in the doldrums, closing the morning session at 271,930 yuan/mt, down 870 yuan (0.32%) from the previous settlement. The futures moved downwards after a higher opening at 272,300 yuan/mt but struggled to rise, maintaining a weak consolidation pattern. Overnight, LME tin fell 0.56% to $34,425/mt with a trading volume of 514 lots, while open interest dropped 2.25 million to 211.7 million lots, reflecting strong wait-and-see sentiment ahead of key data. LME tin inventories rose for the third consecutive day, increasing by 30 mt to 2,195 mt on September 4, exerting slight pressure on prices. Macro perspective, markets focused on the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data after August ADP employment rose by 54,000 (vs. expectations of 65,000), which bolstered expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in September but was offset by a US dollar rebound pressuring risk assets.

The afternoon session is expected to remain in the doldrums as macro front awaits non-farm payrolls guidance. Weaker-than-expected data may reinforce rate cut expectations and lift metal prices, though persistent US dollar rebound risks capping tin's upside. With tepid supply and demand fundamentals, tin's upside room remains limited, with support eyed at the 270,000 yuan/mt psychological level. Market focus stays on actual supply releases from Myanmar and demand realization during the September-October peak season.